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Monday, January 09, 2006

Rumors, Guesses, and Analysts

Well here we are, a day before Steve announces what is comming from Apple. Of coarse Bill has his at CES, which to some was hum-drum and just looked like M$ coping Apple like always. Your not sure? Well take a look at the 3 video's here and you will be.

But to any Mac user this is nothing new. But last week and today there are so many writers guessing on what they think will happen to Apple this year, and writing these articles like they are written in stone, like if Apple does not follow what they have said to the letter, Apple will fail.

Hmm...your $45,000 a year Job to Steve's multi-million dollar a year job, his life should be put in your hands... ya right. I've heard the doom of Apple for too long. Apples on a high road now and some writers still wanna place their bets on Apples doom. I'm really beginning to see the very broad definition used by people in their use of calling themselves "analysts".

Some seem to be doing less then a guess, or stating the obvious. One "analyst" says "Apple will be doing something with .Mac". Duh, lets see, I searched just a simple forum to find out that Apple had posted to .Mac users: ".Mac will be undergoing scheduled maintenance from 7:00 AM to 12:00 PM PST on 1/10/06. All .Mac services will be affected. We apologize for the inconvenience." The one thing we won't know is besides iWeb, what else will come on .Mac.

But you see everybody gets into the Rumor blitz, Some talk about a 42" or 50" plasma or LCD display from Apple. Of coarse we have our villege idiot Brett Arends who writes
"Whatever Steve Jobs unveils at next week’s Macworld powwow in San Francisco, it had better be spectacular.
For Jobs, the CEO of Apple and high priest of the computer maker’s bizarre cult, his company’s soaring stock price is both a blessing and a curse. "
Listen buddy, I'm a Mac computer user, A cult would be more of a M$ follower who really walks through all hell (viruses) and lies (believing windows is better) and is blinded by the bullshit. Brett you must be really dumb ( or just write this for web hits) not to realize when your being a out right Mac hater. I don't hate people who use M$, I just feel sorry for them having to deal with all the BS and listen to people like you who continue the lie.

You see, Apple is not going to fall as fast as some think. With companys like Chrysler who now also join other car makers who have iPod connections to their cars. Plus all new iPod like products follow a path Jobs has been clearing for a while now, and the have to measure up to Apple's standards in the consumers eyes. There is a reason "the seven-day stretch between Christmas and the new year, millions of consumers armed with new MP3 players (primarily iPods) and stacks of gift cards gobbled up almost 20 million tracks from iTunes and other download retailers, Nielsen SoundScan reports."

So it's easy to say that 85-90% of those downloads where for iPods. Other companys want to change that. But sorry, there is a standard set, and URGE does not meet it!

*issue 241 from applegeeks

Who in the hell thought of this name anyway???

Back to the point, Apple and iPods are not leaving anytime soon. "This product will fail", was also said about walkmans back in the day also, and look at the run they had. Every week we hear about a iPod killer or new music service that will take iTunes down. Easier said then done. People have seen a good player and music service, so like I said, the standard has been set. People want to get out of Virus & spyware hell, and computers like the new iBooks & iMacs will be the way.

Let me not even get into products not made by Apple for the iPod, like the iSee, which turns your iPod into a video recorder. So keep in mind when you analyze Apple, that your now talking about more then one companys investment.

One thing some like Cliff Edwards really need to get in their heads is that just because Apple will be using Intel processors, does not mean they will be called "MacTels". Get over it.
He writes for Business Week saying:
"Is the world ready for Mactel? It better be, because come Jan. 10, that name could very well become synonymous with the historic shift taking place in the PC industry."
It was not called a "MacRola" when they used motorola chips or a "MacBM" when they had IBM chips, so MacTel is not going to happen.

Also, Peter Burrows, why the hell did you interview The Innovator's Dilemma author Clayton Christensen?
Just the first question and answer leaves doubt in my mind.

Peter's question:
Apple is doing phenomenally well these days. It seems it's doing a textbook job of maintaining huge market share in digital music players, long after most experts thought that share would erode. And it's doing so with the same proprietary strategy that many thought would never stand up to an onslaught from the likes of Microsoft , Wal-Mart , and Yahoo!. Can Apple keep it up?

Christensen's answer?
I don't think so. Look at any industry -- not just computers and MP3 players. You also see it in aircrafts and software, and medical devices, and over and over. During the early stages of an industry, when the functionality and reliability of a product isn't yet adequate to meet customer's needs, a proprietary solution is almost always the right solution -- because it allows you to knit all the pieces together in an optimized way.

But once the technology matures and becomes good enough, industry standards emerge. That leads to the standardization of interfaces, which lets companies specialize on pieces of the overall system, and the product becomes modular. At that point, the competitive advantage of the early leader dissipates, and the ability to make money migrates to whoever controls the performance-defining subsystem.

Then the thing that catches my eye is how he ends this answer...

In the modular PC world, that meant Microsoft and Intel, and the same thing will happen in the iPod world as well. Apple may think the proprietary iPod is their competitive advantage, but it's temporary. In the future, what will matter will be the software inside that lets users find exactly the kind of music they want to listen to, when and where they want to, with minimal effort."

What?? "Apple may think the proprietary iPod is their competitive advantage, but it's temporary. In the future, what will matter will be the software inside that lets users find exactly the kind of music they want to listen to, when and where they want to, with minimal effort." The one thing that keeps Apple on top is their easy to use software. So what the hell is this guys talking about?? Slap this man with a large trout!

Tomorrow I'll bring more news after MWSF, and will also give you my first thoughts on Lightroom, Adobe's answer to Apple's Apurture.

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